• On-chain Bitcoin metrics suggest a bottoming of the market.
• CryptoSlate revisited several Glassnode metrics which point to a price reversal.
• Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) further splits into Long-Term Holders and Short-Term Holders to indicate when the Bitcoin price is trading above or below fair value.
Recent research into on-chain Bitcoin metrics continues to point to a bottoming of the market. CryptoSlate recently revisited several Glassnode metrics which suggest a price reversal is on the horizon. One of these metrics is the Bitcoin Supply P/L Bands, which show the circulating supply that is either in profit or loss, based on the price of the token being higher or lower than the current price at the time of last moving. Market cycle bottoms coincide with the Supply in Profit (SP) and Supply in Loss (SL) lines converging, which happened most recently around Q4 2022. Since then, the SP band has moved up sharply to diverge from the SL band, suggesting a macro upturn in price could be on the cards if the pattern holds.
Another metric which can be used to indicate when the Bitcoin price is trading above or below fair value is Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV). This metric is further split into two categories; Long-Term Holders and Short-Term Holders. Long-Term Holder MVRV is the ratio between the market cap (or market value) and the value stored by long-term holders. Similarly, Short-Term Holder MVRV is the same ratio between the market cap and the value stored by short-term holders. By comparing these two ratios, investors can gain an indication of when the Bitcoin price is trading above or below fair value.
Finally, there are macro factors in play which may not have been present in previous cycles, potentially impacting the current market cycle. These factors must be taken into consideration when interpreting the data, as the current cycle may not play out the same as past cycles. Ultimately, it remains to be seen if these on-chain metrics continue to indicate a market bottom, but investors should keep a close eye on these metrics in the coming weeks and months.